What’s Happening Right Now
Oil prices are climbing again. Tensions in the Middle East are driving costs up at the pump, and New Mexico families are feeling it in their wallets.
Here’s the problem: our state budget gets a temporary boost when oil prices rise, but everyday people pay the real price. We’re stuck choosing between gas and groceries while our kids breathe polluted air and our state stays trapped in a boom-and-bust cycle; plenty of revenue when oil prices are high but scrambling to make ends meet when the markets fail.
This isn’t just about economics. It’s about whether our children can play outside safely or whether our elders can afford to cool their homes during record heat. It makes us ask whether or not our service members will come home from wars fought over oil and why- leaders won’t build an economy that works for everyone, not just corporate polluters.
What New Mexicans Value
Family means more than blood relatives here. It’s our neighbors. Our communities. The generations who will inherit this land.
When we talk about energy and war, we’re talking about real people. Nearly 30,000 students go to school near oil and gas operations where toxic emissions harm their health and learning. The air quality is so bad at Carlsbad Caverns it regularly exceeds EPA health standards. The fossil fuel industry spills toxic chemicals on our land an average of 104 times a day. These aren’t statistics. They’re our kids. Our family members. Our future.
Who Actually Benefits?
While working families struggle, certain groups profit from this system. Corporate polluters make windfall profits when prices spike while our communities pay the health and environmental costs. Defense contractors and oil executives see their stock prices soar when conflict escalates. War means contracts, contracts mean profits, and profits mean bonuses—all while American families choose between essentials. Washington politicians keep subsidizing fossil fuels while cutting clean energy funding. The Trump administration’s attacks on climate policy and gambles on “quick, victorious wars” hurt what the people are trying to build. We’re living with a rigged system that treats oil revenue as reliable while ignoring mounting healthcare costs, environmental cleanup bills, climate damages, and lives lost.
Economists call this a K-shaped economy—the wealthy benefit while everyday people bear the costs. This isn’t an accident. It’s the result of choices that put corporate profits over community wellbeing.
The Budget Problem
New Mexico produced about 745 million barrels of oil in 2025. Oil and gas revenues make up 35% of our state budget. When global prices spike, we get a temporary boost. But when prices fall, as they always do, we face revenue shortfalls that threaten schools, healthcare, and essential services. This volatility makes long-term planning nearly impossible.
The Climate Reality
New Mexico had the second warmest year on record in 2025, and 2026 is bringing more record heat. Temperatures are running 1 to 24 degrees above normal. In Las Cruces, spring temperatures have increased by 4.5°F. This is dangerous because it means more wildfire risk, strained water resources, higher cooling bills for families, and greater health risks for workers and vulnerable people. Here’s the irony: the oil and gas industry providing temporary budget relief also drives climate change making our state hotter. It’s estimated that New Mexico has had over $4 BILLION in costs associated related to the impacts of climate change, driven by pollution from the oil and gas industry.
Americans Don’t Want This War
Multiple polls from March 2026 tell a clear story. Most Americans don’t see the point of this war according to CNN. Trump is losing Independent support over the Iran conflict per YouGov and the Economist. A majority opposes a ground invasion of Iran according to Quinnipiac. Swing voters are angry that money is going to war instead of helping families. New Mexicans share these concerns. When families choose between gas and groceries, a war driven by oil interests feels like a betrayal.Two weeks into the conflict, civilian casualties are rising as strikes hit homes and infrastructure. U.S. strikes have hit schools, putting children at risk. The Trump administration removed civilian casualty protections that were designed to minimize harm. Families are displaced and communities destroyed. These are mothers, fathers, children, and grandparents—people like us—caught in a conflict they didn’t choose.
Who Wins? Who Loses?
Oil executives watch their stock prices soar while defense contractors land weapons contracts and political insiders tied to the fossil fuel industry profit from the chaos. Meanwhile, American families face higher prices, Iranian civilians sit in the crossfire, U.S. service members deploy with no clear exit strategy, and New Mexico communities deal with economic and environmental fallout.
New Mexicans know the true cost of war. We have one of the highest per-capita military service rates in the nation. We’ve sent our children to conflicts that promised quick victories but delivered years of sacrifice. We don’t want a war over oil. We want our children to grow up in peace, our families to afford basic necessities, our state to invest in sustainable prosperity instead of destructive conflict, and our government to represent people rather than polluters and war profiteers.
New Mexico Is Showing Another Way
Despite federal attacks on clean energy, New Mexico keeps moving forward. We’re advancing clean energy despite federal policy shifts. The Clean Transportation Fuel Program will reduce pollution from transportation, our second-largest emissions source. Renewable energy jobs are growing with over 175 positions currently available. This is a real economic opportunity without the health and climate costs of fossil fuels. New Mexico is making child care free for all working parents, which builds long-term economic stability instead of the boom-and-bust cycle of oil dependence. New Mexicans show up for each other. From supporting small businesses to advocating for clean energy and peace, we’re building an economy that works for everyone.
Imagine a New Mexico where our state budget doesn’t depend on volatile global oil markets. Where our children breathe clean air and learn in schools free from toxic emissions. Where our families can afford gas without choosing between essentials. Where our communities run on clean, renewable energy that creates good jobs. Where our service members come home safe, not deployed to fight wars over oil. Where our state leads the nation in proving prosperity, environmental stewardship, and peace go together.
This vision is achievable. It takes courage to confront powerful interests and commitment to the values that make New Mexico special: family, community, responsibility, and respect for the land.
The Bottom Line
Higher oil prices may pad the state budget today. War may line the pockets of oil executives and defense contractors. But both come at a cost New Mexicans can’t afford: polluted air, record heat, economic instability, lost lives, and a future that threatens our children.
Most of us don’t want this war. We don’t want tax dollars funding conflicts over oil while families struggle. We don’t want our children breathing toxic air near drilling sites. We don’t want our state’s future hostage to volatile markets and endless conflict.
New Mexico can lead. We can show that a state can honor its workers, protect its families, build lasting peace, and create an economy that lasts. The question isn’t whether we can afford to transition away from fossil fuels and endless war.
It’s whether we can afford not to. Our families, our communities, our service members, and our land deserve better. It’s time to demand it.
Sources:
- New Mexico Department of Finance and Administration, FY26 Budget in Brief
- KUNM, “State economist says oil price volatility from the Iran war will have mixed impacts on New Mexico” (March 2026)
- Wild Earth Guardians, “Record Volumes of Oil and Gas Spills Polluted New Mexico in 2025”
- Source New Mexico, “Is the oil and gas boom harming New Mexico’s students?” (June 2025)
- Santa Fe New Mexican, “Record warmth to continue in New Mexico this week” (March 2026)
- Governing, “New Mexico Advances Clean Energy Despite Federal Policy Shifts” (2026)
- CNBC, “Iran war, oil price surge worsen K-shaped economy, say economists” (March 2026)
- CNN, “The biggest Iran polling takeaway: Americans don’t see the point of this war” (March 2026)
- YouGov/Economist, “Trump is losing support from Independents over Iran” (March 2026)
- Quinnipiac University, “Poll says majority in US doesn’t want ground invasion in Iran” (March 2026)
- NPR, “These are the casualties and cost of the war in Iran 2 weeks into the conflict” (March 2026)
- ProPublica, “The U.S. Built a Blueprint to Avoid Civilian War Casualties. Trump Officials Scrapped It.” (March 2026)
- Climate Central, Local Climate Data for Las Cruces, NM (2026)